Sunday, 4 June 2017

Ramadan Revisited

A while back I looked at the figures from to see if the claim that Ramadan is typically a bad month for Islamic terror was true. What I failed to check at that time was the number of attacks occurring during Ramadan as a percentage of the attacks for the year that would be expected from the same number of days.

Taking this approach I found that there is a higher rate of Islamic terror during Ramadan than during the rest of the year.

If we calculate the percentage of days that Ramadan represents for the year and compare this to the percentage of attacks for the year we see a higher percentage than we would expect for the number of days covered by Ramadan.

Here is a table showing the Ramadan dates, number of days and the proportion of attacks we would expect to see during Ramadan if it was no different to any other period and the actual percentage of attacks which occurred during Ramadan compared to the total number of attacks that have happened that year. 2001 has been excluded because we don't have complete data for the year.

As you can see Actual % has always exceeded % Expected.

The average for % expected attacks is 7.56% during Ramadan whereas the actual average of attacks occurring during Ramadan is 9.31%. This figure is 23% higher than expected.

By this analysis Ramadan is the deadliest month. Base data taken from

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